That Time of Year Again

With my two favorite baseball teams being, unquestionably, the worst two teams in the league, it's time for me to look forward, once again, to football season.  Before I really begin, some notes on the coming season:

• There are about 33 days until the whited out kickoff of my BYU Cougars against the Cougars of Washington State in a game I've affectionately dubbed the 'Cougar Bowl.'  I'm going to try to get a pair of tickets to this game and head over to Provo to see it. 
• I hate Utah.
• My BYU Cougars, again, take on the Oregon State Beavers, whom I've come to know and love.  I'm a Beaver believer when they take on any other opponent, but against my Alma Mater, they're just another team to slash down.
• Both Oregon State and BYU look very similar to what they were last year, for good or ill.
• Though I love OSU, I think I want to travel down to Eugene to take in a Ducks game at Autzen Stadium.  I've heard it's loud and awesome, and I'd like to see it for myself.

Oregon State

Unfortunately for the Beavers, looking very similar to what they were last year means that they'll probably look about as bad as thy did last year.  I don't think they'll slip against Nicholls State, like they did last year against Sacramento State, but the outlook is still bleak.  This team has a lot of young players on both sides of the ball that still haven't quite meshed into a teamed.  Though the Pac 12 is largely overrated, it contains good teams with many more talented and more experienced players than OSU's squad.  The Beavers are a better team at home than on the road, and this year's home schedule is tougher than last year's, with more teams that are capable of beating OSU.

Record: 3-9
Wins: Nicholls State, @Arizona, Wazzu
Losses: Wisconsin, @UCLA, @BYU, Utah, @UW, Arizona State, @Stanford, Cal, Oregon

This year's civil war game will, once again, go to the Ducks.  The Beavers always play well against the Ducks and usually play very well at home.  However, the University of Oregon doesn't have to worry about things like "academics," and thus, like much of the SEC, are perennial national championship contenders.  The Beavers will, likely, finish last in the Pac 12.

Ducks - 38, Beavers - 24

BYU

With the abomination of a quarterback know as Jake Heaps now being Charlie Weis' problem, the BYU Cougars are set to do at least as well as they did last season.  This year's schedule has a good balance of teams throughout, with there being a bit of a cakewalk there at the end.  I think (as objectively as possible) that BYU is capable of beating any team on their schedule this year.  The games against Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech will be tough, but I think BYU is capable of winning all of those games.  Much like last year, the offense should be capable of making plays and the defense will bend occasionally, but won't break often.

Because the Cougars are very likely to win at least six games, they should earn and accept a bowl bid, likely the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego against a second choice from the Mountain West.  Though San Diego State may not finish second in the Mountain West Conference, an SDSU v. BYU Poinsettia Bowl would probably sell as many tickets as any bowl game is going to sell, including the BCS bowls and the National "Championship."  Therefore, I'm picking San Diego State to go up against BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Record: 11-2
Wins: Wazzu, Weber St., @Utah, Hawai'i, Utah St., Oregon St., @Georgia Tech, Idaho, @San Jose St., @New Mexico St., (@)San Diego St.
Losses: @Boise St., @Notre Dame

Believe it or not, Riley Nelson hasn't really had a chance to go up against Utah.  We can all see that the abomination of a quarterback known as Jake Heaps didn't have what it takes to take on a bitter rival, especially at home.  However, Riley Nelson, like the acclaimed, mobile lefty that came before him in BYU history does have it... in abundance.  I think Utah goes into this game confident that nothing much has changed in the BYU squad since the end of last year and will realize that they've never actually faced Riley Nelson when the team around him hadn't already given up.  Riley, in his one and only opportunity, should be able to go into Rice-Eccles Stadium and bring the Cougars home victorious... by more than 7 points...  for the first time in 16 years.

Cougars - 38, Utes - 28

Oregon State @ BYU

This one is going to be no-contest.  Last season, BYU beat Oregon State by 10 in Reser Stadium despite not playing their best game.  Like I said before, Oregon State plays much better at home than they do on the road and BYU defends LaVell Edwards Stadium well.  Riley Nelson will plague the Beavers' defense with his running ability and the Cougars defense will be able to shut down OSU's running game handily.  The Beavers will get their points and stay in the game for a while, but it won't be close in the end.

Cougars - 41, Beavers - 20

I'm excited.

I Am, Indeed, Ready...

...for some football.

Of course, I'm speaking of college football, since I haven't watched much in the way of pro football in the last 6 years. This year, there will be two teams that I'll legitimately cheer for, the BYU Cougars and the Beavers of Oregon State. These teams do play each other this season in Corvallis, where I'll be in grad school. Not only will I be cheering for BYU, but I'm 99.99% confident that they'll win the game, and 85% confident that they'll embarrass OSU like a bunch of dirty n00bz. If the game was played today, my prediction would be:

BYU - 37, Oregon State - 17

but week 8 is quite a ways off.

Now, my thoughts on the seasons for both BYU and Oregon State, complete with best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.

BYU

Worst Case Scenario

Record: 9-4

Wins: UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU

Losses: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, TCU

Naturally, the worst case scenario begins BYU football independence with a 3-game skid. However, I believe that with the (lack of) strength of schedule, BYU should be able to make and impressive run at the end of season including a bowl win in the Armed Forces Bowl over East Carolina University, who I predict will be C-USA's #3 this season.

Most Likely Scenario

Record: 11-2

Wins: Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU

Losses: Ole Miss, TCU

For this scenario, I gave BYU a win against Texas and a loss against TCU. In reality, that could easily be switched up to give a win against TCU and a loss against Texas, but I don't think the most likely scenario ends up with BYU winning both, as much as I would enjoy that. I honestly don't think Utah is going to beat BYU again this year. Last year, Utah needed the help of the officials to beat BYU by one point in Salt Lake. This year, the teams aren't much different and the game is in Provo. Most scenarios, including this one, have BYU going to the Armed Forces Bowl against the C-USA #3.

Best Case Scenario

Record: 13-0

Wins: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, TCU, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, LSU

Losses: N/A

Of course, the best case scenario has to end up with the Cougars going undefeated. If BYU went undefeated, despite the (lack of) strength of schedule, I think they would end up being chosen for a BC$ bowl. This year, the order or selection is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. While an undefeated BYU could be picked up by the Fiesta Bowl, I think they would favor a 2nd or 3rd place SEC/Big Ten team or an undefeated Boise State team. Since the Orange Bowl will be forced to take the Big Least champion against their will, that leaves the Sugar Bowl to be the most likely scenario for BYU. Since the 1st place SEC team (my prediction - Abalama) will probably end up in the "championship" game, that would leave the 2nd place team for the Sugar Bowl. My prediction would be Louisiana State to play an undefeated BYU in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, there's also a scenario in which BYU loses to LSU, but that wouldn't be the best case scenario.

Holy War

BYU - 27, Utah - 21


Oregon State

Naturally, Oregon State's outlook is a little more bleak. Don't forget that BYU has won infinitely more national championships than Oregon State (or Utah).

Worst Case Scenario

Record: 3-9

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Wazzu

Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, U-dub, Oregon

A losing record means no bowl bid for Oregon State. Under this scenario, OSU would be 1-4 in games in which I am present and would be 0-6 on the road. In the words of Simon Cowell, "Dreadful, absolutely dreadful."

Most Likely Scenario

Record: 5-7

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Wazzu, U-dub

Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, Oregon

Similar to last season, I think OSU will end up just short of bowl eligibility. It's possible that Oregon State could match up well against Cal and come away with a win and a shot at bowl eligibility, but with the game being played in San Francisco, I think Cal will be able to edge them out. One could also argue that Washington has a shot at beating Oregon State. However, I think that, without Jake Locker and in Corvallis, they're not going to be able to overcome OSU's scoring ability.

Best Case Scenario

Record: 7-6

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Wazzu, Cal, U-dub

Losses: Wisconsin, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, TCU

To be honest, Oregon State actually has quite a few heavy hitters in their coming schedule. I just don't think OSU has the weapons to go up against Wisconsin or Stanford and come away with a win. In one of the few scenarios in which I have Oregon State being bowl eligible, I have them going to the Las Vegas Bowl and losing to the Horned Frogs of TCU.

Civil War

Oregon - 35, Oregon State - 20

So there you have my preview for the teams which I'll be following during the 2011 college football season. I'm ready.

Beyond Criminally Stupid

Today is the day that Auburn University and their Heisman trophy winning quarterback, Cameron Newton meet the University of Oregon in Glendale, Arizona to play for a crystal football in the Bowl Championship Series "championship" game. I hesitate to call this game the National Championship, or even a championship at all, because the way that it selects its "champion." Throughout history, the United States and the world have seen cases of greed, corruption, and just plain evil, but aside of the choke hold that DeBeers has on the diamond industry and *MAYBE* OPEC's control of petroleum, this country has never seen a cartel quite like the cartel that burdens college football's postseason.

In case you're not familiar with the current scheme of college football's "championship," it goes something like this. All 120 Division 1-A (the division for the largest schools) football teams play 12 games during the regular season. After that season, a few groups of pollsters (from the coach's and Harris polls) and an undisclosed computer ranking system rank the top 25 teams in the nation. The number 1 and 2 teams in the country play each other in the BCS "championship" game and others go to various bowl games. The 4 oldest and most prestigious bowls are the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. These bowls combined with the BCS "championship" actually have contractual obligations to the six oldest and richest college football conferences to invite the conference champion to one of these bowl games. There are eleven conferences in Division 1-A college football. The six "Automatic Qualifying" (AQ) conferences are the Southeastern Conference (SEC), the Big Ten Conference, the Big XII Conference, the Pacific 10 Conference (Pac 10), the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), and the Big East Conference. The five non-automatic qualifying (non-AQ) conferences are the Mountain West Conference, the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), Conference USA (C-USA), the Mid-American Conference (MAC), and the Sun Belt Conference. The AQ conferences send their champions to the most prestigious and well-paying bowls, while the non-AQ schools get sent to the likes of the papajohns.com bowl.

If you haven't discerned it yet, the Bowl Championship Series, and by default the entire Division 1-A college football postseason is governed by who has the stranglehold on the power that there is, and not who legitimately has the most competitive college football team. In recent years, teams like Boise State, Texas Christian, Utah, Brigham Young, Houston, and others have demonstrated that they can beat just about any other team in college football and should have the opportunity to play for a national championship. However, they have been denied because they do have a long and storied football program and don't come from one of the richest conferences in the system. In the 13 years of BCS postseason football from 1998 to 2010, only 12 teams in the country had the opportunity to play for the "championship." Keep in mind that two teams meet every year for the game, and thus there would be a maximum of 26 teams that would have been able to play in that game. Only the most storied football programs from the richest conferences actually make it to the "championship" game. Even the teams in the "Big Six" conferences that are a little lower on the totem pole haven't gotten a chance to play for the title.

I'll admit 2 things: 1) The BCS is slightly better than the previous system. 2) The trend that I just mentioned did change a little this year. The previous system for college football's Division 1-A championship was to have the bowls select whoever they wanted, then have pollsters choose who they thought was best after the bowl season. This system was terrible because the top-ranked teams in the country wouldn't necessarily have to play each other. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that matching the two highest-ranked teams at the end of the season is not sufficient in crowning a true champion. Saying the BCS is better that the previous system is like saying that the frying pan is better than the fire: It may be a little bit cooler, but it still sucks.

This year Oregon and Auburn face each other in the BCS "championship" game. These two teams have never been to the BCS championship and have usually been considered second-tier in their conferences. However, this only goes to the incriminate the BCS further because it exemplifies the parity that exists in Division 1-A college football. No longer do USC, Texas, and Florida dominate every team they play and walk to an easy national "championship." Now, every team has to fight for its conference because players have easy access to information and aren't willing to sit for years at a historic program when they could play at a less historic one. Now teams like Auburn and Oregon can contend for their conference championships and teams like Boise State, TCU and Utah can contend that they deserve a shot at the national championship.

Part of the reason that I feel this way toward the BCS is that I have recently read the book Death to the BCS by Yahoo! Sports writers Dan Wetzel, Jeff Passan, and Josh Peter. The subtitle to this book is "The Definitive Case Against the BCS," and I don't think that this could be any more true. The authors of this book went into painstaking detail, investigating the financial reports of universities and incorporated bowl games to discover the truth about the BCS and to develop probably the best alternative that anyone has conceived so far. This book has changed that way that I see college football and I strongly recommend it to anyone who enjoys the sport.


The alternative that Death to the BCS suggests is a 16-team playoff in which the highest-ranked teams get home field advantage. Under this scenario, the 11 conference champions would all get a seed in the playoff bracket and the 5 remaining seeds would be chosen at large by a selection committee, similar to NCAA basketball tournament. Most of the bowls would continue to exist, but would not be quite as obscenely profitable as they are now. Bowls like the GoDaddy.com Bowl and the Insight Bowl would probably perish, and I say "good riddance," to them. However, the large bowls would survive and the fans and schools would get to have an actual championship instead of the imitation that the BCS is putting on.

Now, I've saved the most incriminating evidence against the BCS for last; and trust me, it's incriminating. Anyone who pays taxes in the United States ends up subsidizing the college and universities in their state of residence. I currently live in Colorado, so my tax dollars go to the University of Colorado, Colorado State University, and others. The bowl games in the current system claim that they pay out hundreds of thousands or millions of dollar to participants in their bowl games, however this comes with a catch. Teams that play in these bowl games have to pay (usually in the form of a decreased payout) for tickets for that bowl. The teams have to pay full price for these tickets, and usually one sell a fraction of them for less than face value. Even though I'm a die-hard fan of my alma-mater, I'm not going to pay $155 dollars for a Fiesta Bowl ticket when they're going to $30 on StubHub. Universities also have to pay for travel and accommodations for their team as well as for cheerleaders and band, if they choose to bring them, with no help from the bowl. Bowl games end up paying their participants almost nothing, and in many cases end up costing the university money. This deficit in the athletic budget has to be made up somewhere; usually from the university coffers, and at least in part by the tax dollars of the people. If you pay state taxes, you are subsidizing the Bowl Championship Series.

Lest you go preaching that college football is a waste of money, let me assure that the alternative playoff system would be much more profitable for universities. First of all, schools would be able to sell their own tickets, and make their own revenue instead of paying someone else to host a bowl game at a random neutral site. This money could be shared with traveling schools so that no one has to lose money on college football. Secondly, television ratings and conversely, commercial revenue for playoff games would skyrocket, leading to manifold more money that is had in the Bowl Championship Series, and much more money for the schools. With a playoff system, college football could subsidize your tax dollar instead of the other way around.

The book Death to the BCS is currently selling on Amazon for $13.50, which is a ridiculously low price considering the valuable information that's available therein. If you enjoy college football, let me urge to read this book and to know what I and many others know about the cartel that is the BCS. Boo payoffs, hooray playoffs!