Lower Bound

I've been thinking recently about This Post that I made over a year ago concerning the number of women worldwide with whom I'd be mutually compatible. After I thought about it, I realized that the number I came up with (66) was a very conservative estimate and practically represents a theoretical upper bound to the actual number of women with whom I could have a relationship. I am now revisiting this topic to make less conservative estimate so that I can find a value closer to the lower bound.

In the same format as before:

Membership of the LDS Church (as of Dec. 31st 2008): 13,508,509
Using the same number as before for comparability.

...who are active: 7,429,680
Instead of the way-conservative 76% activity rate, I used a much more pessimistic value of 55%.

...who are female: 3,714,840
Yeah, the world is still pretty much half women.

...who live in developed nations (and speak English): 1,300, 194
Say only 35% of LDS women live in developed nations and speak fluent English.

...who are in the proper age range: 130,020
Saying a seven-year age range represents 10% of the populace probably represents an approximate lower bound.

...who are "beautiful" in my opinion. 2,965
Saying that women must be 2 standard deviations above average in the characteristics that I'm looking for isn't even that big of a stretch.

...and intelligent: 68
I maintain that an IQ of 120 isn't that much to ask when mine is in the range of 145.

...who aren't already married: 21
Are 70% of Mormon women 18-25 married? Probably not. This represents one of my less reasonable assumptions from the first time around.

...who are interested in me: 4
I think 1 standard deviation below average is about right.

If I carry all of my digits instead of universally rounding up, it comes out to 3.22, since those tenths and hundredths start to be significant when you're talking about single digits.

Were you surprised it didn't hit zero? Because I was, the way it was looking there for a second.

130,020/4 = 32,505 weeks, which is about 625 years at one date per month.

The once every six months trend has remained pretty steady, so at that rate, it would be more like 16,252 years.

Just remember: The optimist sees the glass as half full. The pessimist sees it as half empty. The engineer sees a safety factor of 2.

Storytime

As some may know and others are about to find out, my maternal grandfather, Orville Weldon Schaffer, Jr. died just a few weeks ago, and I went to Houston for his funeral. In a strange twist of events, he died on Thanksgiving day, just like his first wife, my grandmother, but that's not why I'm writing this post. I'm writing this post to tell you probably the most important lesson(s) my grandfather taught me about the gospel.

My grandfather was not a religious man, nor was he a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or other any church. He was an atheist before being an atheist was cool. However, through the latter years of his life and in his death, he was able to teach me how the Lord preserves and provides for his children and those who diligently serve him.

For those of you who know me well, you know that my mother managed to spend 135% of my college fund by the time I was ready to start college. Without an outside source of cash, I would have found a job in construction (or at Target) in 2006 when I graduated from high school. Luckily, my grandfather, Orville, was a depression-era child and spent most of his life working multiple jobs at a time as a machinist, surveyor, and wastewater treatment specialist. Over the years, he had spent as little of his money as possible and saved everything that he could. By the time I was ready to start college in 2006, he had amassed multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars merely by working and saving. My mother called my grandfather months before I was ready to start college and asked (more like demanded) that he help out with cash. In total he gave me $8000-$9000 a year for all four years that I was in college, coming out to about $34,000 total. I am genuinely grateful that my grandfather was able to come through and help me to such a large sum. I really couldn't have done it without him.

Now this is where the story really begins. My grandfather was born in February of 1925, making him 81 years old when I started college. Just for reference, the current life expectancy at birth for males in the US is 75.6 years old. My grandfather had already exceeded this by over 5 years when I graduated from high school. By the time I graduated from college, he was closer to ten years above average. After he made his final contribution to my college fund, in August of 2009, his health began to deteriorate. Around that time, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer that shortly afterward metastasized and spread throughout his entire body. He began losing weight rapidly and was largely unable to stand or walk. He refused to take treatment figuring that his time had come and that he was ready to pass on. Finally, on Thanksgiving day, November 25th 2010, around noon, he did just that.

There are a few lessons that I take away from this story. One of these is that the Lord will bless the righteous with blessings that they cannot even comprehend if they do his will and seek those things which are according to his will. In this case, I thoroughly believe that the Lord preserved my grandfather almost entirely for my own blessing. My grandfather was in almost pristine health (considering that he was in his 80s) as long as he was contributing to the righteous endeavors of his grandson. My grandfather was never the most righteous of men. He was incredibly honorable like I mentioned earlier in his work and in his military service, when he served in the US Navy during World War II. However, he never brought his life completely into accord with the principles of the restored gospel, and could hardly be called righteous in many aspects. Despite his lack of righteousness, he was preserved and prospered for a wise purpose in aiding his grandson in his righteous goals.

Another lesson that I learned is that, while the trials we endure now may not make sense, they probably will in the long term. At age 19, I was very disappointed that I was not able to serve a mission for medical reasons. However, if I had gone and my grandfather had died in 2010, I most likely would have been hopelessly unable to finish my bachelor's degree anytime soon. While I still would have loved to have gone, I can understand, at least in part why the Lord did not send me. Like my grandfather, the Lord had, and still has, a wise purpose for me.

The final lesson that I learned is that the Lord is merciful, even to those who do not believe him. Though my grandfather was on the verge of death, and was no longer being fully preserved by the Lord, he was still able to see and comprehend the day that I graduated from college. And while he didn't show it much, it was clear that he appreciated seeing the fruits of his contributions in the life of his grandson.

I know that the Lord Jesus Christ lives and that the restored gospel is the way back to him in the next life. It is stories like this that help me to know that this is true and that I am doing what is right. I may not understand all that the Lord has in store for me, but things like this help to see a little more clearly.

Thanks Grandpa.

Oh, and btw...

...I have, more or less, finished submitting my applications for graduate school next fall. I ended up applying to 7 schools, most of which I've mentioned before. Up to the beginning of the application process, these were pretty much the only schools that hadn't given me some reason not to go there. Any school that was ranked below BYU (#73) in US News and World Report's grad school rankings was pretty much automatically out, because the only reason that I would not go back to BYU is to go to a more prestigious school. Many of the other schools were in places that I no desire to live. Others didn't have very much emphasis on the areas of civil engineering in which I'd like to concentrate, ie. geotechnical and/or structural. Others didn't give full tuition waivers for those with graduate assistantships, which would be the whole reason that I'm even bothering to apply to grad school at this time, since I clearly can't afford it otherwise.

At the onset of the application process, there were 2 of the schools to which I applied whose application process made me really, really not want to go there. These shall be at the bottom of my list for the time being. Now, in order of excitement about the possibility of going there, the schools to which I applied:

1. Virginia Tech - A quality school for any sort of engineering discipline. The only thing that I dislike about the school is that there are 4 NASCAR tracks that are closer than the nearest LDS temple. The tracks at Bristol, TN; Martinsville, VA; Charlotte, NC; and Richmond, VA are all closer than the Raleigh, NC temple, which is the closest to the campus. Additionally, there is no singles' ward in Blacksburg, all the singles just get thrown in with the family ward... not that there are that many singles to begin with. The only thing that I didn't like about the application process was that all documents had to be in Word 2003 format, though that was only a minor inconvenience. And as a bonus, the graduate school was efficient enough that I have already received an acceptance letter; if there was an assistantship offer with it, I might be packing my bags for Blacksburg right now.
   
2. Oregon State - While this one is a little farther down in the ranking of civil engineering grad schools, there is very little that I dislike about the school and its application process. The only thing that I even remotely dislike about the school so far is that their mascot is the beaver. This is not only rather emasculate, but is rather suggestive as well. The application process went about a perfectly as it could go, and my application to Oregon State was the first one that I knew for sure was completed.
3. Purdue - This is the highest-ranked school to which I applied, and it probably has the most prolific civil engineering research program, though most of it is focused on structural. The only problem with Purdue is that, the more I think about Indiana, the less I want to live there. I mean seriously, the only reason that I would even want to visit Indiana is the off-chance of meeting Austin Collie again. The prospect of living there for a year and a half to two is a little discouraging. However, the application process did go pretty much without a hitch... as far as I know.
4. CU Boulder - After moving back in with my parents in August, I'm not sure I ever want to live within 500 miles of them again, if I can help it. Not only is CU only 20 miles from my house, but it's in the People's Republic of Boulder, the land of fruits and nuts. While CU does have some nice research facilities and it would be cool to be close by my Denver-area friends, I'm not sure if the Pros could possibly outweigh the Cons. The application process to CU was pretty straightforward, though there is no way to check the status of your application materials or make any changes once you've submitted it. It's just a spray-n-pray kind of deal, submit your part of the application and then hope they get the rest. Also, since I scheduled a campus visit, they seem to be convinced that I'm a prospective undergrad even though I clearly filled out the graduate application.
5. BYU - I love BYU. I love most everything about it. However, I would like to expand my horizons (and my networking contact list) by attending a different university for grad school. I talked to Dr. Rollins about doing graduate research at BYU after the '11-'12 school year, though nothing is for sure at this point. The grad application to BYU seemed to be easier than the undergrad app, though the ecclesiastical endorsement is still as big of a pain as it ever was.
6. UCLA - This was actually a recent addition to my list of grad schools. Deciding that I wanted to do my grad research in earthquake engineering made the primary public school in LA a very viable option; and anyone who hates the University of Spoiled Children as much as they do is alright with me. However, the application process has me rather disenchanted at this point. First of all, the application is due on December 15th ( which is kind of obscenely early). Next, the school requires that all letters of recommendation have to be hand-signed by their authors. This would have been all well and good if they had told me this BEFORE three of my recommenders submitted recommendations. However, they did not, those writing me letters submitted them unsigned, and I got an email from UCLA telling me that my recommenders had not signed their letters of recommendation. Finally, Dr. Hotchkiss seems to be totally unable to submit my letter of rec even though he signed it. The application has just been a huge pain.
7. Washington - While Washington would be an all-around great place to live, go to school, and do research, the application was a total nightmare. The worst of it was that I had to upload unofficial copies of my transcripts in .pdf format. First of all, I have transcripts at 3 schools, 2 of which don't even give out unofficial transcripts. The UW application would literally not let me submit my application until I had uploaded something for unofficial transcripts for all three schools. I just ended up uploading the same unofficial transcripts from BYU that give acknowledgment of my transfer credit three times. If that's not sufficient for them, they can kiss me @$$. Adding to this craptacity is that the files had to be in .pdf format. I don't know about you, but my computer doesn't have to be a pdf writer, which makes this huge thing an even bigger pain. I ended up just using an online MS Word to pdf converter that only lets you make one conversion every 30 minutes... unless you subscribe to their services and pay them money. And as I already mentioned, I submitted that pdf file to them 3 times. The real kicker is that they didn't even ask for an official copy of my transcripts, and when I called them to ask where to send my official transcripts, they were totally unhelpful. Dear UW, [Beep] you and your incredibly tedious graduate application... and btw, I will not be bowing down to Washington, because your football team sucks.

And there you have it. I can only assume that once I decide which grad school to attend and get an assistantship straightened out, some job to which I applied 8 months before will call and want to hire me. That's just how my life goes.

Just so no one is confused, the assistantship and financial package that I get from these schools will be the deciding factor in where I go. I may very well end up going to UCLA or Washington if they sweeten the pot enough. In the words of P. Diddy, "It's all about the Benjamins."

The Good, The Bad, and The Ute Fans

Over the 3 or so years that I was a student at BYU, I have developed a fiery, burning hatred for the University of Utah as an organization and most of those who voluntarily affiliate themselves therewith. I have even quoted Max Hall many a time in saying, "I hate Utah. I hate everything about them." While I will openly mock all those who attend the University of Utah, there is only really one group who I truly loathe with a passion. I really can't fault most of the students, faculty, football team, or alumni, since they have a valid reason to affiliate themselves with the University of Utah. The people who I absolutely cannot stand are the ones who have no valid reason to affiliate with the spU, but do so because they have found some fault with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

The LDS church owns and operates BYU and is the very core of its educational system. The student body consists of around 98% LDS students and there is a very permeating LDS culture that is associated therewith. There are many people in Utah and abroad that affiliate themselves with the University of Utah, in contrast to BYU, as a form of rebellion against the church, it's leadership, and it's membership. In all honesty, these are some of the most despicable people that I have met in my life so far. They are, generally, people who have very little direction in life, drink copious amounts of alcohol, and have few, if any, sexual hangups. These are precisely the people who spit on and threw beer at Max Hall's family and displayed a blowup doll labeled, "Max Hall's Mom" during the 2008 BYU-Utah football game in Salt Lake. While I'm sure that there are good people who attend and affiliate with the University of Utah for whatever reason, there is also a population who can only be called scum, living a riotous and immoral lifestyle who do the same. These people are the reason that I hate Utah and can hardly stand to step foot on their campus. These are those to whom I refer simply as, "Ute Fans."

I'm not sure that I can totally say how these sort of people become how they are, with such a hatred for the LDS church and all that it stands for. I'm sure that many of them grew up in the church, but never really appreciated the doctrines of the gospel, and grew to despise the counsels given to them by church leaders. Some of these may have also been offended at one particular doctrine or counsel and voluntarily disaffiliated themselves with the church or were excommunicated long ago. I would also speculate that some are not and have never been members of the church, but have a keen distaste for the "theocratic" and "authoritarian" way that the church operates, which permeates in Utah and Mormon culture. Any of these and others could and often do affiliate with the University of Utah merely because they have found fault with the church.

Considering the state of the world, I cannot possibly see this situation being remedied anytime soon. The doctrines of the church and the ideals of the world are rapidly diverging. As Nephi said, there will be many who rage against the church at the last day (See 2 Nephi 28:20). I can only see those who love to be part of the world becoming more angry and those who affiliate with Utah because they dislike the church to grow in number.

And to those who like to say that the prophet went to University of Utah, I have one thing to say to you: So did Ted Bundy. Don't believe me? See for yourself.

Go Cougars.

Comparison Shopping

Disclaimer: This post is a joke, and if you take it seriously, you're stupid.

Recently, I've realized that dating women is a lot like gambling at casinos. Not having much experience with either women or gambling, I came up with some characteristics of both. Let's examine the evidence, in both scenarios:

• You can't win if you don't play.
• You're more likely to get struck by lightening 35 times than you are to win the jackpot.
• They'll dump you shortly after you run out of money.
• If you lose too big, too often, they'll take your house.
• Your odds of getting arrested skyrocket.
• They seem like a better idea when you're inebriated.
• They're pure consumption. Every dollar that you devote to them is gone forever, and you'll never see it again.
• Along the same lines, you'll never be richer than the day before you started playing.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that women should be illegal in every state except Nevada... ironically where prostitution is legal in some areas. XD

Purpose

I've realized that much has happened since I last updated this blag. I'm not particular sure on details at this point, so this is going to be kind of the de facto Reader's Digest version of my life.

I went to Provo for about a week and filmed a TV show while there with my roommates from Spring/Summer. A couple months ago, Scott Manning applied for our apartment to be on the Food Nanny on BYU tv. This is a quintessential Mormon show in which an older lady whose kids are grown comes over and helps families "Rescue Dinner." In this case, we're not exactly a family, so there are a few deviations from the typical plot line. Overall though, it was a blast and I look forward to seeing myself on TV sometime in late January or early February. Disclaimer: I take no responsibility for what happens to your ear drums if you listen to Liz Edmunds with the volume on your computer or TV turned up too loud. She's super fun, but very eccentric. Be warned.

While I was in Provo, I was able to go to both the BYU grad school fair and the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) career fair. The grad school fair held very little promise since half the booths there were occupied by departments from the spU or Utah State. However, I did talk the Purdue guy who was full of useful information and got my very own University of Abalama elephant squeeze toy, which makes me want to go there, just because it's the best schwagg... ever. The career fair, on the other hand, held plenty of promise, though I'm not sure how much, if any, of it will pan out. I talked with several companies who seemed interested in hiring me. The big ones were Rio Tinto, McCarthy Building, Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Vanir Construction Management, Layton Construction, and of course, Kimley-Horn. Both McCarthy and the naval shipyard were holding interviews the next day and said that they might call that night to schedule one. I didn't get a call from either of them, which is disappointing. I submitted my applications to both Rio Tinto and Vanir, and would hope to hear back from them at some point. Kimley-Horn is actually the company with which I had an interview scheduled ahead of time. I went through this interview and everything seemed to go well, however I'm merely left to wait to hear back and see if anyone actually wants to hire me. Overall, the career fair was productive, but not nearly as productive as I had hoped. Most of the civil engineering firms weren't actually hiring, but rather just looking to hand out schwagg so that you'll remember them later. However, I still hold out hope.

Since my hope has been made perfect, I have also been making preparations to submit applications for grad school next fall. On Thursday, I sent out a few emails to my former professors asking for letters of recommendation and what kind of research would be available back at BYU. Dr. Saito responded to my email within two hours. The other two that I sent out have not yet elicited a response. I hope that Dr. Hotchkiss and Dr. Gerber are merely ignoring me over the weekend as opposed to ignoring me indefinitely. That would be unfortunate. In addition to the letters of rec that I have asked for, I have also been working on a statement of purpose. After lots of deliberation and thought, I've managed to pound out an initial draft of at least Purdue's statement of purpose. I look forward to people picking it apart into tiny little bits, then restructuring it. If you want to have the privilege of reading this statement, let me know and I'll get it to you in an email.

It might be slightly confusing for the habitual readers of my blag to see me writing a statement of purpose to Purdue when, as of my last post, I wasn't even considering them. Well, way back when, I was considering Purdue. It started when fiancée #2 and I were both considering grad schools to attend so that we could go together. Purdue has reputable programs for both speech language pathology and civil engineering and her Female Parental Unit (not her mother... you don't really want to know) was living in Indiana at the time, so that choice was easy. At some point along the road, Purdue's user unfriendly website pissed me off and I decided to stop considering it. However, this week, when I talked to the Purdue guy at the career fair, I decided to look more into it. It turns out that it's still a good program and I could fulfill my dream of going there for free if I got an assistantship. In addition to this change, I've alse decided that I really don't want to go to Wisconsin because their civil engineering department is set up in a really weird way and that I wouldn't mind going to the University of Minnesota - Twin Cities, since the aforementioned Dr. Hotchkiss got his Ph.D. there and I could go there for free.

So, you should be pretty much caught up on what I'm up to these days... not that it's that exciting or anything. :P

Plan F

Considering that neither my post-graduate Plan A or Plan B are working out too well, I think it's about time I start working toward Plan F. Plan A is still to find an entry-level job in civil engineering, preferrably making a competitive wage at the same time. That has clearly not been working out all too well thus far, but I did only get my degree posted to my transcripts about a week ago. Hopefully, at the BYU career fair and with all the other applications I've been submitting, I can find something that actually pays in money and not in cases of hot pockets or facebook credits. Plan B was to join the military in either the Army or the Air Force as an engineer officer. Since it appears that I'm ineligible to join the military as an officer, that will prove rather difficult. Now, since I skipped letter codes C to E just for effect, it's on to Plan F. This plan involves going to grad school starting in the fall of 2011 for a civil/environmental engineering master's degree.

For a good while now (since at least about 3 or 4 months ago) I've decided that I refuse to pay for grad school. While this might sound utterly absurd, there are actually quite a few programs across the country that will waive all forms of tuition and even give you a nice stipend if you go to grad school at their university if you can get a graduate research or teaching assistantship. In civil engineering programs, there are often plenty of research opportunities (though with the crapconomy, no one really knows) and with my previous teaching assistant experience, I might actually qualify for one of those. If I can find a school that will actually give me a research/teaching assistantship, I might just take the glorious opportunity to acrue more usury on my undergraduate loans and work toward a graduate degree in civil engineering.

According to my last count, there are eight schools at which I wouldn't mind pursuing a master's degree in civil engineering. More or less in the order of preference:

• Virginia Tech - VT has a massive civil engineering department with over 60 professors and a plethora of research opportunities to go with them. It's also ranked 9th in the nation according to US News and World Report for civil engineering grad schools.


• Washington - I'm not going to say too many nice things about UW right now, but I do like their program and think it would generally be a good place for me.


• California, Los Angeles (or the University of Cottonpickin', Lower Abalama, as I like to call it.) - While I may not respect UCLA's athletics, their academics and especially their civil engineering department is top notch. If I more certainly wanted to study geotechnical/earthquake engineering, this would definitely be the place, since it gets rocked frequently. And any school that hates the University of Spoiled Children is alright with me.


• Oregon State - I'm not sure how much I'd actually enjoy being part of the OSU community, but at this point, I'm a fan of the civil engineering program. I don't hate Oregon now, but I'm sure I would after being an OSU student for over a year.


• Colorado, Boulder - As much as Boulder is full of hippie stoners, I think that CU-Boulder has the best program in the state and I wouldn't mind going there if I could get an assistantship. On the upside to this one, I have many friends in the north Denver area and I would live near my parents for optimal mooching. And with the Buffs joining the Pac-12 next year, it makes the 4th consecutive Pac-12 school.


• Wisconsin, Madison - In a place where the mosquito is the state bird, I'm not sure I could make through my time there without dropping the F-bomb once or twice, though I'm not sure that anyone really cares. Wisconsin's program is ranked number 16 in the nation, though I'm not sure that it's actually worth it to live in such a dismal local.


• Notre Dame - As I've mentioned before on this blag, the price at Notre Dame is right. Anyone who is admitted to ND in for civil engineering automatically gets a graduate assistantship, and therefore, no one pays tuition. I respect Notre Dame's football program, but also think that Brian Kelly is a douchebag. The best thing about that is that BYU is going to play them several times over the next few years.


• Brigham Young - The place where I got my undergrad degree. I'm almost positive that either Dr. Gerber or Dr. Hotchkiss would want me to do research with them and I could get some sort of assistantship there. Additionally I already have good friends that alread live there, and assuming that my former roommates can manage to kick out the guy from Dell Tech Support, I know exactly where I want to live. And don't forget, I left BYU without a ring...

I'm not totally sure that BYU would be my absolute last choice, but it really depends on where else I get in. The application deadlines for most all of these schools is January 15th, so I'd need to start working on these applications in about mid-October in order to finish them. The first one due is UCLA on the 15th of December, so if I don't have a job by then, the application is going in.

Hopefully, at some point, I can get Plan A to start working out for me so that I don't even have to consider Plan F until several years down the road. In addition to Plan F, there is also Plan Z which involves finding a job that pays about $15 an hour or more, since this is about the minimum that I can make and still pay my bills, whether it's in any way relevant to my degree or not. Then there's also Plan Γ (gamma), which, as I've already mentioned, involves hopping on a train and being a hobo for about 10 years.

At this point, I'm rooting for Plan A...