I've been thinking recently about This Post that I made over a year ago concerning the number of women worldwide with whom I'd be mutually compatible. After I thought about it, I realized that the number I came up with (66) was a very conservative estimate and practically represents a theoretical upper bound to the actual number of women with whom I could have a relationship. I am now revisiting this topic to make less conservative estimate so that I can find a value closer to the lower bound.
In the same format as before:
Membership of the LDS Church (as of Dec. 31st 2008): 13,508,509
Using the same number as before for comparability.
...who are active: 7,429,680
Instead of the way-conservative 76% activity rate, I used a much more pessimistic value of 55%.
...who are female: 3,714,840
Yeah, the world is still pretty much half women.
...who live in developed nations (and speak English): 1,300, 194
Say only 35% of LDS women live in developed nations and speak fluent English.
...who are in the proper age range: 130,020
Saying a seven-year age range represents 10% of the populace probably represents an approximate lower bound.
...who are "beautiful" in my opinion. 2,965
Saying that women must be 2 standard deviations above average in the characteristics that I'm looking for isn't even that big of a stretch.
...and intelligent: 68
I maintain that an IQ of 120 isn't that much to ask when mine is in the range of 145.
...who aren't already married: 21
Are 70% of Mormon women 18-25 married? Probably not. This represents one of my less reasonable assumptions from the first time around.
...who are interested in me: 4
I think 1 standard deviation below average is about right.
If I carry all of my digits instead of universally rounding up, it comes out to 3.22, since those tenths and hundredths start to be significant when you're talking about single digits.
Were you surprised it didn't hit zero? Because I was, the way it was looking there for a second.
130,020/4 = 32,505 weeks, which is about 625 years at one date per month.
The once every six months trend has remained pretty steady, so at that rate, it would be more like 16,252 years.
Just remember: The optimist sees the glass as half full. The pessimist sees it as half empty. The engineer sees a safety factor of 2.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Storytime
As some may know and others are about to find out, my maternal grandfather, Orville Weldon Schaffer, Jr. died just a few weeks ago, and I went to Houston for his funeral. In a strange twist of events, he died on Thanksgiving day, just like his first wife, my grandmother, but that's not why I'm writing this post. I'm writing this post to tell you probably the most important lesson(s) my grandfather taught me about the gospel.
My grandfather was not a religious man, nor was he a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or other any church. He was an atheist before being an atheist was cool. However, through the latter years of his life and in his death, he was able to teach me how the Lord preserves and provides for his children and those who diligently serve him.
For those of you who know me well, you know that my mother managed to spend 135% of my college fund by the time I was ready to start college. Without an outside source of cash, I would have found a job in construction (or at Target) in 2006 when I graduated from high school. Luckily, my grandfather, Orville, was a depression-era child and spent most of his life working multiple jobs at a time as a machinist, surveyor, and wastewater treatment specialist. Over the years, he had spent as little of his money as possible and saved everything that he could. By the time I was ready to start college in 2006, he had amassed multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars merely by working and saving. My mother called my grandfather months before I was ready to start college and asked (more like demanded) that he help out with cash. In total he gave me $8000-$9000 a year for all four years that I was in college, coming out to about $34,000 total. I am genuinely grateful that my grandfather was able to come through and help me to such a large sum. I really couldn't have done it without him.
Now this is where the story really begins. My grandfather was born in February of 1925, making him 81 years old when I started college. Just for reference, the current life expectancy at birth for males in the US is 75.6 years old. My grandfather had already exceeded this by over 5 years when I graduated from high school. By the time I graduated from college, he was closer to ten years above average. After he made his final contribution to my college fund, in August of 2009, his health began to deteriorate. Around that time, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer that shortly afterward metastasized and spread throughout his entire body. He began losing weight rapidly and was largely unable to stand or walk. He refused to take treatment figuring that his time had come and that he was ready to pass on. Finally, on Thanksgiving day, November 25th 2010, around noon, he did just that.
There are a few lessons that I take away from this story. One of these is that the Lord will bless the righteous with blessings that they cannot even comprehend if they do his will and seek those things which are according to his will. In this case, I thoroughly believe that the Lord preserved my grandfather almost entirely for my own blessing. My grandfather was in almost pristine health (considering that he was in his 80s) as long as he was contributing to the righteous endeavors of his grandson. My grandfather was never the most righteous of men. He was incredibly honorable like I mentioned earlier in his work and in his military service, when he served in the US Navy during World War II. However, he never brought his life completely into accord with the principles of the restored gospel, and could hardly be called righteous in many aspects. Despite his lack of righteousness, he was preserved and prospered for a wise purpose in aiding his grandson in his righteous goals.
Another lesson that I learned is that, while the trials we endure now may not make sense, they probably will in the long term. At age 19, I was very disappointed that I was not able to serve a mission for medical reasons. However, if I had gone and my grandfather had died in 2010, I most likely would have been hopelessly unable to finish my bachelor's degree anytime soon. While I still would have loved to have gone, I can understand, at least in part why the Lord did not send me. Like my grandfather, the Lord had, and still has, a wise purpose for me.
The final lesson that I learned is that the Lord is merciful, even to those who do not believe him. Though my grandfather was on the verge of death, and was no longer being fully preserved by the Lord, he was still able to see and comprehend the day that I graduated from college. And while he didn't show it much, it was clear that he appreciated seeing the fruits of his contributions in the life of his grandson.
I know that the Lord Jesus Christ lives and that the restored gospel is the way back to him in the next life. It is stories like this that help me to know that this is true and that I am doing what is right. I may not understand all that the Lord has in store for me, but things like this help to see a little more clearly.
Thanks Grandpa.
My grandfather was not a religious man, nor was he a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or other any church. He was an atheist before being an atheist was cool. However, through the latter years of his life and in his death, he was able to teach me how the Lord preserves and provides for his children and those who diligently serve him.
For those of you who know me well, you know that my mother managed to spend 135% of my college fund by the time I was ready to start college. Without an outside source of cash, I would have found a job in construction (or at Target) in 2006 when I graduated from high school. Luckily, my grandfather, Orville, was a depression-era child and spent most of his life working multiple jobs at a time as a machinist, surveyor, and wastewater treatment specialist. Over the years, he had spent as little of his money as possible and saved everything that he could. By the time I was ready to start college in 2006, he had amassed multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars merely by working and saving. My mother called my grandfather months before I was ready to start college and asked (more like demanded) that he help out with cash. In total he gave me $8000-$9000 a year for all four years that I was in college, coming out to about $34,000 total. I am genuinely grateful that my grandfather was able to come through and help me to such a large sum. I really couldn't have done it without him.
Now this is where the story really begins. My grandfather was born in February of 1925, making him 81 years old when I started college. Just for reference, the current life expectancy at birth for males in the US is 75.6 years old. My grandfather had already exceeded this by over 5 years when I graduated from high school. By the time I graduated from college, he was closer to ten years above average. After he made his final contribution to my college fund, in August of 2009, his health began to deteriorate. Around that time, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer that shortly afterward metastasized and spread throughout his entire body. He began losing weight rapidly and was largely unable to stand or walk. He refused to take treatment figuring that his time had come and that he was ready to pass on. Finally, on Thanksgiving day, November 25th 2010, around noon, he did just that.
There are a few lessons that I take away from this story. One of these is that the Lord will bless the righteous with blessings that they cannot even comprehend if they do his will and seek those things which are according to his will. In this case, I thoroughly believe that the Lord preserved my grandfather almost entirely for my own blessing. My grandfather was in almost pristine health (considering that he was in his 80s) as long as he was contributing to the righteous endeavors of his grandson. My grandfather was never the most righteous of men. He was incredibly honorable like I mentioned earlier in his work and in his military service, when he served in the US Navy during World War II. However, he never brought his life completely into accord with the principles of the restored gospel, and could hardly be called righteous in many aspects. Despite his lack of righteousness, he was preserved and prospered for a wise purpose in aiding his grandson in his righteous goals.
Another lesson that I learned is that, while the trials we endure now may not make sense, they probably will in the long term. At age 19, I was very disappointed that I was not able to serve a mission for medical reasons. However, if I had gone and my grandfather had died in 2010, I most likely would have been hopelessly unable to finish my bachelor's degree anytime soon. While I still would have loved to have gone, I can understand, at least in part why the Lord did not send me. Like my grandfather, the Lord had, and still has, a wise purpose for me.
The final lesson that I learned is that the Lord is merciful, even to those who do not believe him. Though my grandfather was on the verge of death, and was no longer being fully preserved by the Lord, he was still able to see and comprehend the day that I graduated from college. And while he didn't show it much, it was clear that he appreciated seeing the fruits of his contributions in the life of his grandson.
I know that the Lord Jesus Christ lives and that the restored gospel is the way back to him in the next life. It is stories like this that help me to know that this is true and that I am doing what is right. I may not understand all that the Lord has in store for me, but things like this help to see a little more clearly.
Thanks Grandpa.
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