The Big IX

There's been a lot of talk, recently, about Texas A&M moving out of the Big 12 in favor of another conference. After being snubbed by the Southeastern Conference, the two biggest candidates are the Big Ten and the Pac-12, both of which would enjoy an increase in their ability to recruit in Texas. The problem for the Big 12 is that the departure of Texas A&M would take them from 10 teams down to 9, which, at best digs an even bigger hole for a conference whose brand is highly numerical, and at worst, breaks the conference apart.

Naturally, many people in the analysis business are discussing what teams could come in and fill the voids left by the recent departures in that conference. The name that's getting thrown around far more than any other is BYU. Now, before I go any further, I'd like to say that I do not represent Brigham Young University in any respect, other than being an alumnus similar to any other BYU alum in the nation and abroad. That being said, I think I can offer some insight into the circumstances that could lead BYU to the Big 12 Conference.

Starting this year, BYU will go independent in football and join the West Coast Conference (WCC) in most other sports, excluding a few in which the WCC does not participate. Institutions of higher education are rarely very organic, and BYU is no exception to this rule. This decision to change conference affiliation was well thought out and undoubtedly prayed over for months before it was made. At this point in time, BYU is committed to going independent and staying independent in football for years to come. BYU is also an uncannily good fit for the WCC, a conference of west-coast religious schools, in other sports.

While BYU is very committed to its current plan, it would be possible for the Big 12 to sweeten the pot enough for BYU to come on board. A year ago, the conference was not desperate enough to make those sacrifices, with its biggest anchors, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M remaining firmly in place. Now, with Texas A&M heck-bent on getting out of the conference and BYU being one of the few good teams left without an Automatic Qualifying (AQ) conference affiliation, the Big 12 might just have the incentive to give BYU what they want.

In my opinion, here's most of what it would take:

• Giving BYU full autonomy over its TV contract with ESPN. The biggest reason BYU went independent was to get out of the infernal abyss of The Mtn. television programming and actually get some nationwide exposure for the football program. They signed an 8-year contract with ESPN and will have many of their games broadcast on the unquestionably popular network during that time. The Big 12 would have to, in no way, interfere with this contract in order to get BYU in the conference.
• Limiting the term of BYU's Big 12 contract to the remaining 7 years of the ESPN contract. Basically, BYU would be free to walk away after 7 years with full rights to its broadcasting contract with no (that means zero) exit fees.
• Allowing BYU to keep certain already-scheduled opponents for their non-conference schedule. I mostly speak of Notre Dame, Boise State, Utah and Georgia Tech, but BYU would need to be free to schedule conference games around its non-conference schedule for games that have been scheduled as of the time BYU joined the conference.
• Allowing BYU to play Utah on whichever week they chose as long as they were a member of the conference. If Utah could get permission from their pimp, maybe we could have the game on rivalry weekend. What a concept!
• A big, fat check to any school with whom BYU has to abandon a future meeting. When schools back out of an agreed-upon meeting, they often cut the other school a check, just to make sure lawyers don't get involved. The Big 12 would need to cover any of these costs for BYU.
• An agreement with the WCC. Most everyone involved likes the fit of BYU with the West Coast Conference in sports other than football and would hate to see them move back out after only a year or two. The Big 12 would probably need to supply some cash and some exclusive scheduling rights (many to BYU) with the WCC for some years to come, but the terms would be negotiable.

The terms that I've listed here are quite a price to pay for a team that's not a perennial national "championship" contender, though such schools are becoming fewer and farther between. However, this is why BYU did not join the Big 12 a year ago, even though I'm sure there was at least some discussion between University and Conference representatives. The Big 12 was just not willing to pay the asking price while it still held together and had many of its best teams. BYU is also comfortable with and committed to football independence and to the WCC; and it will take a rather hefty sum to get them to pack up and move.

Will the Big 12 want a team like BYU enough to make the necessary compromises? Only time will tell.

Football and Other Unregrets

I have very few regrets about the decisions that I've made in my life so far. There are decisions on which I wish I had been better informed. There are also decisions that have been made for me that I wish had turned out differently. Though, I don't have many regrets, I've been out of control of my life for a high enough proportion of my time to create feelings of regret even though the word "regret" doesn't really fit. I've looked around, and I haven't really found a single word that fits this phenomenon very well, so I usual end up calling them "unregrets" because they are kind of like regrets, but they aren't.

Of course the biggest unregret of my life is not being able to serve a full-time proselyting mission for the Church of Latter-day Saints. When I was 18 and 9 months, I decided that I was going to serve a mission for the church, but the missionary department had other plans, and my mission papers ended up coming back negative. In case anyone is curious, you don't actually get any paperwork back when you're not allowed to serve, you just get called into your bishop/branch president's office where he informs you that you will not be serving a mission, but I digress.

I was inspired to write this post today because one of my good friends asked me a very simple question today:

"Did you play football?"

I was wearing the BYU football shirt new for the 2011 season, so it was a perfectly reasonable question to ask. In all honesty, at 6'2" and a couple bucks and change, I'm surprised that I don't get asked more often, but it made me think.

I would have loved to have played football. I can't remember a time in my life where I didn't like football and watch it frequently. I even have the build of a guy who could play in the NFL, not that I necessarily suppose I would have made it that far. The position I would have played is tight end, for which I would have been perfect. In addition to my impressive ability to catch things (footballs in this case), I have a plethora of lower-body strength that would allow me to effectively block other players, my size and larger. Simply put, I would have loved football and football would have loved me in return.

The problem was that my father had a borderline-irrational fear of me blowing out a knee and never really being the same again. For whatever reason, he allowed me to play catcher in baseball, (my knees did just fine, my ankles actually took the worst of it) and ride a dirt bike around like a madman, but not play any position in football. Since we have way too many lawyers in this country and every organization morbidly fears getting sued for all the contents of its balance sheet plus some, there's a mountain of paperwork that has to be filled out before anyone can play any sport. Since I was under 18 at the time, I could not vouch for myself, but required parent/legal guardian signatures for everything. Since my dad wasn't having it and my mom wasn't going to sign anything that my dad wouldn't sign, I was hosed.

I don't want anyone to think that I don't love my parents or that their decision ruined the life of fame and luxury I could have had playing in the NFL (or merely going to college for free). I just happen to disagree with them on this particular thing. I believe that I possessed enough cognitive and emotional ability, even at the age of 12, to make that decision for myself, and I don't think I would have regretted it. I could even understand requiring me to quit if I got injured even once, but I think totally forbidding me to play based on the possibility of injury was unreasonable.

I guess the moral of the story is that sometimes things in life get decided for you regardless of your feelings for the outcome. The important thing is to choose wisely how you react to these situations and not dwell on things that you cannot change. If you're a man or woman of God, you have to recognize that He has a plan for you regardless of whether you end up playing football, or going on a mission, or a whole host of other things. And maybe trust the decisions of your children if made with wisdom and discernment. :)

On a totally unrelated note, I've decided that, if I ever have the money and resources, I'm going to get myself an Emerald Toucanet and build it a climate-controlled, steel-framed plexiglass structure on the back side of my house.


Now there's a decision I wouldn't regret.

I Am, Indeed, Ready...

...for some football.

Of course, I'm speaking of college football, since I haven't watched much in the way of pro football in the last 6 years. This year, there will be two teams that I'll legitimately cheer for, the BYU Cougars and the Beavers of Oregon State. These teams do play each other this season in Corvallis, where I'll be in grad school. Not only will I be cheering for BYU, but I'm 99.99% confident that they'll win the game, and 85% confident that they'll embarrass OSU like a bunch of dirty n00bz. If the game was played today, my prediction would be:

BYU - 37, Oregon State - 17

but week 8 is quite a ways off.

Now, my thoughts on the seasons for both BYU and Oregon State, complete with best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.

BYU

Worst Case Scenario

Record: 9-4

Wins: UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU

Losses: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, TCU

Naturally, the worst case scenario begins BYU football independence with a 3-game skid. However, I believe that with the (lack of) strength of schedule, BYU should be able to make and impressive run at the end of season including a bowl win in the Armed Forces Bowl over East Carolina University, who I predict will be C-USA's #3 this season.

Most Likely Scenario

Record: 11-2

Wins: Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU

Losses: Ole Miss, TCU

For this scenario, I gave BYU a win against Texas and a loss against TCU. In reality, that could easily be switched up to give a win against TCU and a loss against Texas, but I don't think the most likely scenario ends up with BYU winning both, as much as I would enjoy that. I honestly don't think Utah is going to beat BYU again this year. Last year, Utah needed the help of the officials to beat BYU by one point in Salt Lake. This year, the teams aren't much different and the game is in Provo. Most scenarios, including this one, have BYU going to the Armed Forces Bowl against the C-USA #3.

Best Case Scenario

Record: 13-0

Wins: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, TCU, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, LSU

Losses: N/A

Of course, the best case scenario has to end up with the Cougars going undefeated. If BYU went undefeated, despite the (lack of) strength of schedule, I think they would end up being chosen for a BC$ bowl. This year, the order or selection is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. While an undefeated BYU could be picked up by the Fiesta Bowl, I think they would favor a 2nd or 3rd place SEC/Big Ten team or an undefeated Boise State team. Since the Orange Bowl will be forced to take the Big Least champion against their will, that leaves the Sugar Bowl to be the most likely scenario for BYU. Since the 1st place SEC team (my prediction - Abalama) will probably end up in the "championship" game, that would leave the 2nd place team for the Sugar Bowl. My prediction would be Louisiana State to play an undefeated BYU in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, there's also a scenario in which BYU loses to LSU, but that wouldn't be the best case scenario.

Holy War

BYU - 27, Utah - 21


Oregon State

Naturally, Oregon State's outlook is a little more bleak. Don't forget that BYU has won infinitely more national championships than Oregon State (or Utah).

Worst Case Scenario

Record: 3-9

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Wazzu

Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, U-dub, Oregon

A losing record means no bowl bid for Oregon State. Under this scenario, OSU would be 1-4 in games in which I am present and would be 0-6 on the road. In the words of Simon Cowell, "Dreadful, absolutely dreadful."

Most Likely Scenario

Record: 5-7

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Wazzu, U-dub

Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, Oregon

Similar to last season, I think OSU will end up just short of bowl eligibility. It's possible that Oregon State could match up well against Cal and come away with a win and a shot at bowl eligibility, but with the game being played in San Francisco, I think Cal will be able to edge them out. One could also argue that Washington has a shot at beating Oregon State. However, I think that, without Jake Locker and in Corvallis, they're not going to be able to overcome OSU's scoring ability.

Best Case Scenario

Record: 7-6

Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Wazzu, Cal, U-dub

Losses: Wisconsin, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, TCU

To be honest, Oregon State actually has quite a few heavy hitters in their coming schedule. I just don't think OSU has the weapons to go up against Wisconsin or Stanford and come away with a win. In one of the few scenarios in which I have Oregon State being bowl eligible, I have them going to the Las Vegas Bowl and losing to the Horned Frogs of TCU.

Civil War

Oregon - 35, Oregon State - 20

So there you have my preview for the teams which I'll be following during the 2011 college football season. I'm ready.

Une Année

One year ago today, I was standing in a line of others dressed in the black robes of a false priesthood in the Smith Fieldhouse of Brigham Young University waiting to receive my empty diploma cover. August 13th, 2010 was the day that I walked for college graduation. My degree was posted to my transcripts a couple weeks later and I eventually received my diploma in an envelope that said, "DO NOT FOLD" in big, red letters on the front. I graduated from college on Friday the 13th, and while the day itself was grand, the circumstances surrounding it seemed to reflect the lack of luck often associated with the date.

I applied for my first full-time engineering job in January of 2010, and made the mistake of not counting the many that came after that. I figure that I must have applied for at least 300, but I have no idea exactly what the number is. This mistake will not be repeated when I graduate with a master's degree, hopefully in June of 2013; I will counting the number of full-time engineering job applications submitted with as much precision as possible.

If I had indeed known how terrible the construction-sector job market was going to be in 2010 in December of 2009, this post would have been very different. I would have started applying for master's programs at that time and would have started almost immediately after my graduation from BYU with a bachelor's degree. Who knows what my life would have been like it that had been the case? I probably would have applied to about the same set of schools, but the funding scheme for this last year could have been much different, and I could have ended up going to a school other than Oregon State. As it is, I will be heading out to Oregon State in a little under a month to start the master's degree, and I'm convinced that that is where I need to be at this time of my life.

On a lighter note, I've decided that I'm going to reward myself with something if I find a decent-paying, full-time engineering job after I graduate with a master's degree.


That's a 2011 Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R. My love of motorcycles started when my aunt Lory sent me a remote-controlled replica of a Kawasaki Ninja ZX-7R; and I've kind of wanted as close to real version of that bike since that time. I've been riding dirt for much of the mean time, but I've been looking forward to the day when I could get myself a street bike. The ZX-7R was discontinued several years ago as a result of the 750cc racing class being halted. That leaves me with the option of either the ZX-6R (600cc) or the ZX-10R (1000cc). The ZX-6R is not only the safer option, but in a strange piece of irony, seems to be more ergonomically suitable to a man of my size.

They're running about 10 large at this point. Considering the other costs I would be facing compared to the income of a full-time engineering job, that wouldn't even be hard to come up with.

Here's hoping that the next two (or so) years are better than the last one.

Options

In a little less than a month, I move to the great state of Oregon in order to begin a master of science degree at Oregon State University. Considering the nature of my arrival at Oregon State, I find it necessary to contemplate what I should do if I cannot find a full-time engineering job after finishing a master's degree. Statistically speaking, master's grads have done much better than bachelor's grads over the past 3 years. However, in 2008, bachelor's grads were still doing pretty good, and in the state of the economy, it's certainly better to be safe than sorry. So, here are some things that I could do if I cannot find an engineering job in the United States of America.

• Try to find an engineering job in New Zealand. Considering the state of their infrastructure, they could probably use someone with my skill set... and might actually have the money to pay me for it.
  
• Teach English in some strange 2nd-world country. Considering how well some of these gigs pay, I could do much worse. Namely...
  
• Teach Math/Science stateside. Considering the sad state of STEM education, there might be a job waiting for someone who can both multiply AND divide.
• Taco Bell.
• Panhandling. I would need to grow a beard first.
  
• Start an uprising against the current government scheme, the extremely wealthy, and the American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Sail the 7 seas and become a pirate.
• Illegally emigrate to Mexico and get on the dole... Oh wait.
• Find a sugar momma.
• Sell my blood plasma.
• Find/start a band for which I could be the bass player.
• Stand-up comedy.

The one thing that I can think of that definitely wouldn't be an option would be being a bum on my parents' couch... again. If you have any ideas, feel free to send them my way.

Program Plan

The Oregon State University Civil and Construction Engineering program (like most others on any campus) has a requirement that all students have a written program plan on file in the school office. Naturally, I'm way ahead of the game when it comes to planning. Since I don't know exactly what the schedule of classes will look like in the next couple years, there are some changes that could come to the plan as the class schedules come to light. For now, I've put the classes that I'm most confident will be offered during the term in question. An asterisk next to a class name denotes that I wouldn't mind foregoing that class in favor of a more exciting one (keep in mind, I'm an engineer, this is relative.) There's also a distinct possibility that my major/minor advisor won't approve this plan, though that seems unlikely, since it fulfills all the requirements as far as I know.

Fall '11

CE 507 - Stupid Semenar, 1.0 credits
CE 571 - Advanced Foundation Engineering, 4.0
CE 572 - In-situ and Lab Testing of Soils, 4.0
CE 589 - [Structural] Seismic Design, 4.0
13.0 total credits

Winter '12

CE 507 - Stupid Semenar, 1.0
CE 534 - Structural Dynamics, 4.0
CE 570.1 - ST/Shear Strength and Slope Stability, 4.0
CE 570.2 - Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, 4.0
13.0 total credits

Spring '12

CE 507 - Stupid Semenar, 1.0
CE 573 - Earth Structures, 4.0
CE 575 - Earth Retention and Support, 4.0
CE 583 - Bridge Design, 3.0
12.0 total credits

Fall '12

CE 503 - Thesis, 3.0
CE 526 - Advanced Concrete Materials*, 3.0
CE 528 - Civil Engineering Project Management*, 4.0
CE 585 - Matrix Structural Analysis, 4.0
14.0 total credits

Winter '13

CE 503 - Thesis, 3.0
CE 514 - Groundwater Hydraulics*, 3.0
CE 527 - Temporary Construction Structures, 4.0
CE 586 - Prestressed Concrete Design, 3.0
13.0 total credits

Spring '13

CE 503 - Thesis, 3.0
CE 533 - Structural Stability*, 3.0
CE 592 - Pavement Structures*, 3.0
Geo 561 - Geology of Earthquakes, 3.0
12.0 total credits

This plan in particular makes for 77 total quarter hours (51 semester hours), even though I only need 45 quarter hours (30 sem). This is because students supported by school funds have to maintain 12 term hours per quarter.

I leave for Corvallis on the 10th of September, when I will begin this program of awesome. Just so you know. :)