Lower Bound

I've been thinking recently about This Post that I made over a year ago concerning the number of women worldwide with whom I'd be mutually compatible. After I thought about it, I realized that the number I came up with (66) was a very conservative estimate and practically represents a theoretical upper bound to the actual number of women with whom I could have a relationship. I am now revisiting this topic to make less conservative estimate so that I can find a value closer to the lower bound.

In the same format as before:

Membership of the LDS Church (as of Dec. 31st 2008): 13,508,509
Using the same number as before for comparability.

...who are active: 7,429,680
Instead of the way-conservative 76% activity rate, I used a much more pessimistic value of 55%.

...who are female: 3,714,840
Yeah, the world is still pretty much half women.

...who live in developed nations (and speak English): 1,300, 194
Say only 35% of LDS women live in developed nations and speak fluent English.

...who are in the proper age range: 130,020
Saying a seven-year age range represents 10% of the populace probably represents an approximate lower bound.

...who are "beautiful" in my opinion. 2,965
Saying that women must be 2 standard deviations above average in the characteristics that I'm looking for isn't even that big of a stretch.

...and intelligent: 68
I maintain that an IQ of 120 isn't that much to ask when mine is in the range of 145.

...who aren't already married: 21
Are 70% of Mormon women 18-25 married? Probably not. This represents one of my less reasonable assumptions from the first time around.

...who are interested in me: 4
I think 1 standard deviation below average is about right.

If I carry all of my digits instead of universally rounding up, it comes out to 3.22, since those tenths and hundredths start to be significant when you're talking about single digits.

Were you surprised it didn't hit zero? Because I was, the way it was looking there for a second.

130,020/4 = 32,505 weeks, which is about 625 years at one date per month.

The once every six months trend has remained pretty steady, so at that rate, it would be more like 16,252 years.

Just remember: The optimist sees the glass as half full. The pessimist sees it as half empty. The engineer sees a safety factor of 2.