Of course, I'm speaking of college football, since I haven't watched much in the way of pro football in the last 6 years. This year, there will be two teams that I'll legitimately cheer for, the BYU Cougars and the Beavers of Oregon State. These teams do play each other this season in Corvallis, where I'll be in grad school. Not only will I be cheering for BYU, but I'm 99.99% confident that they'll win the game, and 85% confident that they'll embarrass OSU like a bunch of dirty n00bz. If the game was played today, my prediction would be:
BYU - 37, Oregon State - 17
but week 8 is quite a ways off.
Now, my thoughts on the seasons for both BYU and Oregon State, complete with best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.
BYU
Worst Case Scenario
Record: 9-4
Wins: UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU
Losses: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, TCU
Naturally, the worst case scenario begins BYU football independence with a 3-game skid. However, I believe that with the (lack of) strength of schedule, BYU should be able to make and impressive run at the end of season including a bowl win in the Armed Forces Bowl over East Carolina University, who I predict will be C-USA's #3 this season.
Most Likely Scenario
Record: 11-2
Wins: Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, ECU
Losses: Ole Miss, TCU
For this scenario, I gave BYU a win against Texas and a loss against TCU. In reality, that could easily be switched up to give a win against TCU and a loss against Texas, but I don't think the most likely scenario ends up with BYU winning both, as much as I would enjoy that. I honestly don't think Utah is going to beat BYU again this year. Last year, Utah needed the help of the officials to beat BYU by one point in Salt Lake. This year, the teams aren't much different and the game is in Provo. Most scenarios, including this one, have BYU going to the Armed Forces Bowl against the C-USA #3.
Best Case Scenario
Record: 13-0
Wins: Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Oregon State, Idaho State, TCU, Idaho, New Mexico State, Hawaii, LSU
Losses: N/A
Of course, the best case scenario has to end up with the Cougars going undefeated. If BYU went undefeated, despite the (lack of) strength of schedule, I think they would end up being chosen for a BC$ bowl. This year, the order or selection is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. While an undefeated BYU could be picked up by the Fiesta Bowl, I think they would favor a 2nd or 3rd place SEC/Big Ten team or an undefeated Boise State team. Since the Orange Bowl will be forced to take the Big Least champion against their will, that leaves the Sugar Bowl to be the most likely scenario for BYU. Since the 1st place SEC team (my prediction - Abalama) will probably end up in the "championship" game, that would leave the 2nd place team for the Sugar Bowl. My prediction would be Louisiana State to play an undefeated BYU in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, there's also a scenario in which BYU loses to LSU, but that wouldn't be the best case scenario.
Holy War
BYU - 27, Utah - 21
Oregon State
Naturally, Oregon State's outlook is a little more bleak. Don't forget that BYU has won infinitely more national championships than Oregon State (or Utah).
Worst Case Scenario
Record: 3-9
Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Wazzu
Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, U-dub, Oregon
A losing record means no bowl bid for Oregon State. Under this scenario, OSU would be 1-4 in games in which I am present and would be 0-6 on the road. In the words of Simon Cowell, "Dreadful, absolutely dreadful."
Most Likely Scenario
Record: 5-7
Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Wazzu, U-dub
Losses: Wisconsin, Arizona, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Cal, Oregon
Similar to last season, I think OSU will end up just short of bowl eligibility. It's possible that Oregon State could match up well against Cal and come away with a win and a shot at bowl eligibility, but with the game being played in San Francisco, I think Cal will be able to edge them out. One could also argue that Washington has a shot at beating Oregon State. However, I think that, without Jake Locker and in Corvallis, they're not going to be able to overcome OSU's scoring ability.
Best Case Scenario
Record: 7-6
Wins: Sacramento State, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Wazzu, Cal, U-dub
Losses: Wisconsin, BYU, Utah, Stanford, Oregon, TCU
To be honest, Oregon State actually has quite a few heavy hitters in their coming schedule. I just don't think OSU has the weapons to go up against Wisconsin or Stanford and come away with a win. In one of the few scenarios in which I have Oregon State being bowl eligible, I have them going to the Las Vegas Bowl and losing to the Horned Frogs of TCU.
Civil War
Oregon - 35, Oregon State - 20
So there you have my preview for the teams which I'll be following during the 2011 college football season. I'm ready.
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